On the US model (Point 2) – While the US thrives on its financial depth and entrepreneurial dynamism, one underexplored factor is the increasing penetration of religious dogmatism (especially evangelical influences) within society. Historically, US capitalism has been deeply tied to a liberal ethos, but this new ideological shift could shape economic decision-making in unexpected ways.
On the future of energy (Points 5 & 6) – From firsthand experience in sustainable fuel and hydrogen development, the bottleneck is no longer technology but scaling pathways. EU regulations are pushing innovation, patents are filed, test plants exist, and even production is starting—yet many projects stall before Final Investment Decision (FID). The issue is twofold:
. Strategic mindset and financial structuring – There’s a lack of financial vehicles and risk-sharing mechanisms to de-risk large-scale investment.
. Distribution inefficiencies – Scaling production isn’t just about volume; it's about matching supply with demand in a fragmented, legacy-heavy industrial ecosystem. Today’s chemists and engineers have the tools, but the industrial and logistical architecture remains outdated.
Thanks, Christian! I agree on point 2, though I think the US is extremely diverse, and it mostly comes down to who holds power at any given time. The religious right is somewhat influential these days (though I wouldn’t classify Trump as a vessel for it), but liberals could make a comeback sooner than expected.
As for energy: yes, I agree there too. I feel what’s coming will favour top-down, command-and-control approaches like those in China or what France used to do until the 1980s. Paradoxically, you still need centralised power and resources to build a decentralised grid!
The EU is entirely designed not to allow this, in the name of the market. The US has only done it once in its history—during the New Deal right after the Great Depression. We’ll have to see if that model can make a comeback somewhere in the West.
"Trump: Doom, or Worlds’s Polanyi Moment?" - might make an interesting topic. With current tech elites distacted by political matters opportunities might open up for a new wave of innovators not distracted by the search for eternal youth etc
Thanks, David, for referring to an old essay of mine. In a way, this entire newsletter, Drift Signal, is now dedicated to exploring the topic you mention!
Very interesting indeed! Your comparison with the 70s is interesting, perhaps followed somewhat to far (by the way, where are the Steve jobs and bill gates of our new 70s ?) but it sure makes me thinking!
Then, what about culture? I don't see Europe accepting the type of strategy you recommend...
I'll probably write about this in a next post.
In the meantime, thanks again for this very inpiring vision !
Thanks, Nicolas, for your comment. I agree on European culture, though cultures shift in changing contexts like ours. As for today's Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, we may not truly know them: if the next technological revolution centres on electrification, it will be less consumer-facing than personal computing. Even if it is consumer-facing, the alpha innovators will most likely be in China—so I’d look for them among leaders like Ren Zhengfei (Huawei), Lei Jun (Xiaomi), and Wang Chuanfu (BYD).
I like the reminder that periods of apparent regression can seed renewal.
I’ve heard similar optimism from entrepreneurs in emerging markets who see opportunity in mastering existing models and adapting them locally.
Also interesting to see strategy making a comeback. In founder conversations I’ve had recently, it’s clear that clarity on positioning matters more than growth at all costs right now.
Great you're back, Nicolas! And this edition is already a great preview of what to expect - yes, a wider perspective but still lots of crucial insights for Europe which too often has been navel glazing in the past ten years!
Thanks, Daniel—and apologies for the late reply. As you’ve probably seen by now, I’ve published a whole series exploring this reset from various angles.
Excellent!
A couple of related reflections:
On the US model (Point 2) – While the US thrives on its financial depth and entrepreneurial dynamism, one underexplored factor is the increasing penetration of religious dogmatism (especially evangelical influences) within society. Historically, US capitalism has been deeply tied to a liberal ethos, but this new ideological shift could shape economic decision-making in unexpected ways.
On the future of energy (Points 5 & 6) – From firsthand experience in sustainable fuel and hydrogen development, the bottleneck is no longer technology but scaling pathways. EU regulations are pushing innovation, patents are filed, test plants exist, and even production is starting—yet many projects stall before Final Investment Decision (FID). The issue is twofold:
. Strategic mindset and financial structuring – There’s a lack of financial vehicles and risk-sharing mechanisms to de-risk large-scale investment.
. Distribution inefficiencies – Scaling production isn’t just about volume; it's about matching supply with demand in a fragmented, legacy-heavy industrial ecosystem. Today’s chemists and engineers have the tools, but the industrial and logistical architecture remains outdated.
Thanks, Christian! I agree on point 2, though I think the US is extremely diverse, and it mostly comes down to who holds power at any given time. The religious right is somewhat influential these days (though I wouldn’t classify Trump as a vessel for it), but liberals could make a comeback sooner than expected.
As for energy: yes, I agree there too. I feel what’s coming will favour top-down, command-and-control approaches like those in China or what France used to do until the 1980s. Paradoxically, you still need centralised power and resources to build a decentralised grid!
The EU is entirely designed not to allow this, in the name of the market. The US has only done it once in its history—during the New Deal right after the Great Depression. We’ll have to see if that model can make a comeback somewhere in the West.
"Trump: Doom, or Worlds’s Polanyi Moment?" - might make an interesting topic. With current tech elites distacted by political matters opportunities might open up for a new wave of innovators not distracted by the search for eternal youth etc
Thanks, David, for referring to an old essay of mine. In a way, this entire newsletter, Drift Signal, is now dedicated to exploring the topic you mention!
Link to the 2016 essay: https://salon.thefamily.co/brexit-doom-or-europes-polanyi-moment-3e97269e6b67
Very interesting indeed! Your comparison with the 70s is interesting, perhaps followed somewhat to far (by the way, where are the Steve jobs and bill gates of our new 70s ?) but it sure makes me thinking!
Then, what about culture? I don't see Europe accepting the type of strategy you recommend...
I'll probably write about this in a next post.
In the meantime, thanks again for this very inpiring vision !
Thanks, Nicolas, for your comment. I agree on European culture, though cultures shift in changing contexts like ours. As for today's Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, we may not truly know them: if the next technological revolution centres on electrification, it will be less consumer-facing than personal computing. Even if it is consumer-facing, the alpha innovators will most likely be in China—so I’d look for them among leaders like Ren Zhengfei (Huawei), Lei Jun (Xiaomi), and Wang Chuanfu (BYD).
I like the reminder that periods of apparent regression can seed renewal.
I’ve heard similar optimism from entrepreneurs in emerging markets who see opportunity in mastering existing models and adapting them locally.
Also interesting to see strategy making a comeback. In founder conversations I’ve had recently, it’s clear that clarity on positioning matters more than growth at all costs right now.
Thanks, Daniel, for your comment! I’m a strong believer that transitional times create opportunities for radical change.
Great to see you back!
Thanks, Leo!
Great to see you back!!!
Thanks, Alex! Very glad you liked this edition.
Great you're back, Nicolas! And this edition is already a great preview of what to expect - yes, a wider perspective but still lots of crucial insights for Europe which too often has been navel glazing in the past ten years!
Thanks, Daniel—and apologies for the late reply. As you’ve probably seen by now, I’ve published a whole series exploring this reset from various angles.
What a pleasure it is to read your work again! I'm delighted you'll be writing more often to shed light on the world's many upheavals.
Thanks, Nathanael, for your comment! I hope you’re well and found the subsequent editions equally interesting.
Great read. Europe needs mindset changes and ambitious entrepreneurs.
Thanks, Hjörtur. It’s very hard to change one’s mindset, but transitional times like ours at least provide the context for trying.