Really, really great essay. Thank you so much for taking the time to write this.
I recently did a deep dive into China, so a lot of this was very familiar, but you articulated the story really well.
With all good writing, you have to know what to leave out. I spent a lot of my time understanding China's DDDD problems. Debt, Demographics, Distribution and Domestic tension.
Which are really the only headwinds to their rise. I came to conclusions similar to yours in terms of trade "blocs," etc. A lot depends on China / Taiwan.
This is a great post and a really valuable read. Lots to absorb and think about. One thing bugs me - why do we think "humanoid" robots are the future? To me these all seem like PR gimmicks. There is a massive shift in manufacturing with robots but those robots are not human like. Is humanoid just another distraction from reality?
Je suis totalement béotien sur votre sujet Merci de cette écriture claire et profonde qui permet plusieurs niveaux de lectures dont la réalité de l industrie contemporaine « bits and atomes in a light out factory »
Really well thought and inisghtful. As a China originated, US educated, and Europe working corporate lawyer, I have to say there are a couple things which I disagree with or think you have left out though:
1. The legacy of the Mao Era, which often referred to as "the former thirty years" after CCP took over China. Such legacy, such as land reform, Soviet dominated economic development and technolgy transfers, military driven constructions in remote areas, etc. etc., all paved way for the waves of industrial revolutions that happened in Deng era;
2. Crack down on IT giants. Many believe that it is necessary because these IT giants are increasingly drawn towards platform based business models, while such platforms often are public infrastructures like railways, which should not be owned privately. Also, the IT giants were getting too comfortable with profits reaped domestically with such platforms while the expectation is for them to to compete globally.
3. The landscape of Chinese century. The Chinese century is probably rushed because of the unanicipated quick down fall of the PAX Americana. So it remains to be seen how the landscape will look like. But I personally do not believe it will be limited to the economic level. In fact, there are already some cultural phenomenons emerging in the past year, like the video game Black WuKong, the movie NeZha, the APP Rednote.
Really, really great essay. Thank you so much for taking the time to write this.
I recently did a deep dive into China, so a lot of this was very familiar, but you articulated the story really well.
With all good writing, you have to know what to leave out. I spent a lot of my time understanding China's DDDD problems. Debt, Demographics, Distribution and Domestic tension.
Which are really the only headwinds to their rise. I came to conclusions similar to yours in terms of trade "blocs," etc. A lot depends on China / Taiwan.
This is a great post and a really valuable read. Lots to absorb and think about. One thing bugs me - why do we think "humanoid" robots are the future? To me these all seem like PR gimmicks. There is a massive shift in manufacturing with robots but those robots are not human like. Is humanoid just another distraction from reality?
Fantastic piece, thanks so much for putting this together.
Great piece Nicolas.
Leaves me wondering how demographics volatility and migrations might affect those outcomes…
Je suis totalement béotien sur votre sujet Merci de cette écriture claire et profonde qui permet plusieurs niveaux de lectures dont la réalité de l industrie contemporaine « bits and atomes in a light out factory »
Really well thought and inisghtful. As a China originated, US educated, and Europe working corporate lawyer, I have to say there are a couple things which I disagree with or think you have left out though:
1. The legacy of the Mao Era, which often referred to as "the former thirty years" after CCP took over China. Such legacy, such as land reform, Soviet dominated economic development and technolgy transfers, military driven constructions in remote areas, etc. etc., all paved way for the waves of industrial revolutions that happened in Deng era;
2. Crack down on IT giants. Many believe that it is necessary because these IT giants are increasingly drawn towards platform based business models, while such platforms often are public infrastructures like railways, which should not be owned privately. Also, the IT giants were getting too comfortable with profits reaped domestically with such platforms while the expectation is for them to to compete globally.
3. The landscape of Chinese century. The Chinese century is probably rushed because of the unanicipated quick down fall of the PAX Americana. So it remains to be seen how the landscape will look like. But I personally do not believe it will be limited to the economic level. In fact, there are already some cultural phenomenons emerging in the past year, like the video game Black WuKong, the movie NeZha, the APP Rednote.
Excellent essay. Thanks Nicolas. Many questions asked about the future